A plane traveling from Baku to Grozny has crashed. Here’s what we know so far.

According to authorities in Kazakhstan, there were 62 passengers and five crew members aboard the crashed Embraer 190 aircraft.

Casualties and Survivors

Preliminary reports provided by Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbaev on Wednesday evening indicate that 38 people have died. He mentioned that identification of the bodies is still pending. Authorities in Kazakhstan report that 29 individuals survived, all of whom have been hospitalized, including two children. Earlier reports mentioned 32 survivors, and it remains unclear whether three individuals died after the crash or if the initial figures were inaccurate.

Among those on board were 37 citizens of Azerbaijan, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three from Kyrgyzstan, as reported by Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport. Among the injured are 15 citizens of Azerbaijan, nine Russians, and two Kyrgyz citizens, while the nationality of three individuals is still being verified. The head of Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport, Marat Karabaev, confirmed that seven Russian citizens died and nine survived.

Birds, Cylinder, Air Defense?

An official cause for the crash has yet to be determined. Various agencies and media sources have suggested several possibilities, including a collision with a flock of birds, an explosion of an oxygen cylinder on board, or technical failure. On Wednesday evening, it was reported that a "black box" had been found.

There is also speculation that the aircraft may have been hit by ground-based air defense systems. Video footage of the aircraft's damaged fuselage, which surfaced on December 25 in Russian Telegram channels, might support this theory. The fuselage shows marks resembling those from shrapnel.

The author of a channel close to the Russian Aerospace Forces, Fighterbomber, hinted that the crash may not have been due to a bird strike, which is currently the main theory. His post suggests that the aircraft's fall could have been the result of air defense operations. This theory has also been echoed by several other military bloggers. Subsequently, some OSINT experts did not dismiss this version.

The Aircraft Attempted to Land in Grozny

Grozny, where the aircraft was scheduled to land, reportedly came under attack from what are believed to be Ukrainian drones on Wednesday morning. While this has not been officially confirmed, numerous media outlets and Telegram channels have reported on it. An opposition Chechen Telegram channel, NIYSO, indicated that drones attacked the region around the time of the planned landing. The attack by drones on Chechnya was confirmed by Hamzat Kadyrov, the Chechen Security Council Secretary and nephew of Ramzan Kadyrov. As noted by "Agency," drones also attacked the neighboring regions of Ingushetia and North Ossetia. In Vladikavkaz, a shopping center caught fire after a drone strike.

Meanwhile, the press service of Grozny Airport informed RIA Novosti that the aircraft had been redirected to Makhachkala, and then to Aktau due to fog.

The service Flightradar confirmed that the aircraft approached Grozny but was unable to land there and headed towards Aktau instead.

An Emergency Situation Arose Long Before the Crash

Data suggests that the emergency situation on board occurred many minutes before the aircraft attempted to land in Aktau, likely when it was flying over Russia, possibly on approach to Grozny. After that, the aircraft managed to cross the Caspian Sea and attempted to land.

The Telegram channel "VChK-OGPU" published what are presumed to be fragments of conversations between the Embraer pilots and the dispatcher at Grozny Airport on Wednesday evening (the authenticity of these recordings has not been verified). The recordings indicate that the pilots believed the aircraft had collided with a flock of birds and, realizing it was damaged, requested to land in Mineralnye Vody and then in Makhachkala. Evidently, due to the inability to perform landing maneuvers at these airports, the aircraft continued eastward towards Aktau.

Survivor Subhonkul Rahimov, who posted video from the aircraft shortly before the crash, told RT that the pilots attempted to land in Grozny three times, and during the third attempt, "something exploded," although it was not "inside the aircraft." Flightradar data does not clarify whether the aircraft reached Grozny, but it indicates that the aircraft had apparent control issues while flying from Dagestan over the Caspian Sea towards Aktau. It struggled to maintain altitude for over an hour. A source from Baza at Aktau Airport reported that the pilots were controlling the aircraft solely through engine thrust: the elevator controls were not functioning. One of the surviving passengers recorded audio stating that he "flew for two hours waiting for his death," further confirming that problems on board arose long before the aircraft fell.

In another video from the aircraft, it is evident that it was flying with a damaged wing.

OSINT analysts quoted by "Agency" express skepticism regarding the theory that the aircraft was damaged by a bird strike. "If the damage had been caused by a bird strike or debris during the crash, I would expect to see many more dents on the fuselage around the holes. It seems that each individual fragment that hit the aircraft had enough kinetic energy to breach the fuselage rather than just leave a dent," writes analyst Oliver Alexander. Military expert Yan Matveev points out the significant dispersion of shrapnel on the aircraft's body, which, in his opinion, could occur from a missile strike from the "Pantsir-S1" system. The founder of CIT also states that the holes in the fuselage resemble "air defense holes," but he qualifies that he is not ready to assert this categorically.

Attempted Landing in Aktau

The aircraft crashed into a field near the runway of Aktau Airport. Prior to the crash, it circled above the airport, according to Flightradar data. The moment of the aircraft's fall was captured on video.

After the crash, the aircraft broke apart, with the tail section detaching and flipping over.

The airline Azerbaijan Airlines stated that the aircraft operating flight J2-8243 from Baku to Grozny made an emergency landing approximately three kilometers from the city of Aktau.

Shortly after the crash, various theories began to emerge. Rosaviatsiya reported that preliminary information indicated the cause of the incident was a collision with a flock of birds. The health department of the Mangystau region of Kazakhstan claimed that an oxygen cylinder exploded on board the aircraft. "Interfax" reported that a technical failure of the aircraft is also being considered. No official announcement has been made regarding any of the theories. An investigation is underway.

Flights Suspended

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared December 26 a day of mourning in Azerbaijan due to the aircraft crash. Aliyev cut short his visit to Russia, where he had attended the CIS summit, and returned to Azerbaijan. "There are various versions. I believe it is too early to discuss this issue. The matter must be thoroughly investigated," local media quote the Azerbaijani president regarding potential causes of the crash.

Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights from Baku to Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation into the causes of the Embraer 190 crash is completed.

• In 2014, a passenger aircraft of Malaysia Airlines was shot down over the Donetsk region. All 298 people on board were killed. A court in the Netherlands established that the aircraft was shot down by a "Buk" system directed into Donbass by Russian military forces. The court placed direct responsibility for the crash on pro-Russian separatists of the self-proclaimed "DPR".